Election 2010 Predictions

No Races:
23 Republican Seats
38 Democratic Seats

Republicans Will Hold 
Safe Republican Seats: 23 (Non-Races) + 21 (Easy Victories) = 44

Alaska: Miller (Tea Party Republican) - currently tied with Murkowski, both leading the Democrat by 6 points.

• The only reason that Miller will win is because people tend to vote by party, as opposed to voting for a candidate.  It is unlikely that many of the voters are smart enough to know that Murkowski was their last senator, and that she is a Republican also.  Most of them will just see the "R" next to Miller, and vote for him.
• Even with Republicans splitting the vote between two candidates the Democrat is behind by a significant margin.  There is just no chance of a Democrat winning in Alaska.

Alabama: Shelby (R) - currently leading by a 2:1 margin


Arizona: McCain (R) - currently leading by 19 points


Arkansas: Boozeman (R) - currently leading by 19 points


Florida (Republican Incumbent Retiring): Rubio (R) - currently leading Crist (I) by 15, and the Democrat by 23



Georgia: Isakson (R) - currently leading by 18


Idaho: Crapo (R) - currently leading 2:1


Iowa: Grassley (R) - currently leading by 25

Kansas (Republican Incumbent Retiring): Moran (R) - currently leading by 42

Louisiana: Vitter (R) - currently leading by 13

Missouri (Republican Incumbent Retiring): Blunt (R) - currently leading by 8

New Hampshire (Republican Incumbent Retiring): Ayotte - currently leading by 9

North Carolina: Burr (R) - currently leading by 13

Ohio (Republican Incumbent Retiring): Portman (R) - leading by 17

Oklahoma: Coburn (R) - leading by 42

South Carolina: DeMint (R) - currently leading by 40

• Apparently the good people of South Carolina don't mind sex scandals as much as the people of other states.  Why am I not particularly surprised.

Utah (Republican Incumbent Retiring): Lee (R) - currently leading by 26

Kentucky (Republican Incumbent Retiring): Bunning (R) - currently leading by 5

Republicans Will Pick Up
Indiana (Democratic Incumbent Retiring): Coats (R) - currently leading by 17

North Dakota (Democratic Incumbent Retiring): Hoeven (R) - currently leading by 42

Democrats Will Hold
Safe Republican Seats: 38 (Non-Races) +  8 (Easy Victories) = 46

Connecticut (Democratic Incumbent Became VP): Blumenthal (D) - currently leading by 8

Delaware (Democratic Incumbent Retiring): Coons (D) - currently leading by 18

• I'd like to point out that the media is making it sound like O'Donnell actually has a chance in this race.  She is behind by 18 points!!  She has no chance of ever winning in this race, so why are we even talking about her in the first place?

Hawaii: Inouye (D) - currently leading by 30

Maryland: Mikulski (D) - currently leading by 18

New York 1: Schumer (D) - currently leading by 41

New York 2: Gillibrand (D) - currently leading by 18

Oregon: Wyden (D) - currently leading by 18

Vermont: Leahy (D) - currently leading by 33


Democrats Will Pick Up
Nothing!

Deciding Contests (GOP 46, DEM 46, 8 Close Races)

California: Boxer (D) - Currently leading by 3 (within the margin of error)

• I've said it before and I'll say it again, this happens every year and Boxer always ALWAYS comes out with a win.  In her first election (1992) she won by 4.9%.  In the last two elections she has had anemic opponents and has won by 10% (1998) and 19% (2004).  Against a household name like Fiorina, of course it will be close, but she is still going to win.
• I would also like to point out that California does elect moderate republicans from time to time, like Arnold!  however, Fiorina is CLEARLY not moderate.  The only reason she is doing well is because she, being a business person herself, enjoys the support of businesspeople in the state who are quite powerful.  But it's still not enough to get past the fact that she has allied herself with the likes of Sarah Palin and John McCain.

Nevada: Reid (D) - currently down by 1 (within the margin of error)

• It is ridiculous to think that Reid, the leader of the senate, would lose to Angle, the Tea Parties most psycho talker.  There are people here who I know will vote for her, but still I think most of them are doing it out of party loyalty and not because they actually agree with her views.  If there were any sort of justice in the world, she would never win.

Colorado: Buck (R) - currently up by 3 (within margin of error)

Illinois: Giannoulias (D) - currently down by 1 (statistical tie)

• As if the Republicans are going to win Obama's old senate seat.

Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) - currently in a statistical tie with Sestak

• The democrats are going to be punished for Specter's defection.  Even though Sestak already beat Specter, it wont stop the Republicans in the state from being pissed about his party switch.  Republicans are going to take this state back.

Washington: Murray (D) - currently leading by 2

• Washington tends to be relatively liberal, so I think it's fair to err on the side of the democratic candidate in this state.

West Virginia: Manchin (D) - currently leading by 2

• Very blue collar, so traditionally this would be a strong liberal base, but that has moved somewhat rightward.  I think it's still a pretty strong democratic base.

Wisconsin: Feingold (D) - currently down by 6

• Feingold is an institution in democratic politics and I'd be surprised if he lost.

SUMMARY

Strong Republican: 46

Republican Toss-Up Victories: 2

Strong Democratic: 46

Democratic Toss-Up Victories: 6

Final Senate Balance: 52 Democrat, 48 Republican

Realistically, I think this have been the historically stable balance for either party.  60-40 was never going to be stable, and I think everyone on both sides assumed the pendulum was going to swing back to the middle.